Iran-Israel War: Implications

 

Wars are the continuation of policy by other means. This famous dictum by Prussian military theorist Carl von Clausewitz forms the bedrock of post-industrial modern warfare. Every conflict makes military leaders unlearn some older lessons and learn new ones. However, the ‘principles of war’ distilled over space and centuries in time, remain unchanged. Any violation of these ‘imperatives’ costs dearly in time, effort and treasury, besides causing loss of life and limb. The recent 12-day war between Israel and Iran – with the US dragged into the fray at the 11th hour – is instructive, as it has profound geostrategic, political and military implications not only for the belligerents, but also for the region and the world, especially for the militaries like Pakistan Armed Forces.

The rundown

But first a factual recap. Israel started its air offensive against Iran on June 13, 2025, notching up the ongoing shadow war between the two counties into a full-scale shooting war. For 12 days upto June 25, both sides traded missiles, and drones, with Israel using IAF and inserting commando teams in clandestine operations. Both sides targeted military and industrial sites with civilian population targeted in collateral damage. The stated purpose of Israeli offensive was to destroy Iran’s nuclear programme and facilitate regime change, as possible.

The US, on Israeli PM Netanyahu’s desperate urging joined the war on June 21, 2025, bombing the three Iranian nuclear sites at Natanz, Fordow and Isfahan in a complex attack involving around 125 aircraft, including seven B-2 Spirit stealth bombers, and one submarine. The US used the heaviest conventional munitions like the 30,000 pounds GBU-57 bunker busting MOP (massive ordnance penetrator), and BGM-109 Tomahawk cruise missiles. Iran after pre-coordination, retaliated the US bombing by attacking the sprawling Al Udaid US base in Qatar, firing 16 ballistic missiles, most of which were intercepted. On June 24, President Trump announced a complex ceasefire as dramatically as he had entered the war, which after some angry US reactions on violations, still holds. Decoys, covert operations and deception movements were used liberally especially by the US/Israel.

Results and implications

Iran’s Fordow complex, containing around 3,000 sophisticated centrifuges in two enrichment halls, was attacked using the GBU-57s, and is ‘severely damaged but not destroyed’ as per agreed intelligence assessments, including that of Iran. The IDF-US Combo destroyed the above ground structures, electric supply and underground enrichment centrifuges at Natanz, the largest uranium enrichment facility. The laboratories at Isfahan complex, the storage site for the near bomb-grade nuclear fuel, were also destroyed.

Tehran still possesses over 400kg of Uranium, reportedly enriched up to 60 per cent, below the weapons grade enrichment of around 80-90 per cent. This is enough for some nine nuclear bombs. Iran is likely to have stored this enriched Uranium safely elsewhere, and most likely shifted some critical infrastructure to other unknown, undeclared and undetected sites beforehand.

So, it is safe to assume that Irani nuclear progamme is mauled, delayed but probably not eliminated. The nuclear programme seems to have survived the strongest possible challenge, and Iran’s missiles capability remains intact and able to re-establish deterrence.

Geostrategically, Iran’s 3H (Hamas, Houthi and Hezbollah) proxies are effectively degraded in the IDF and Mossad’s joint military and covert operations. Consequently, Irani military and political influence got a big hit in Syria, Iraq, Lebanon and Yemen. The Sunni crescent seems to have come out stronger.

Militarily, the IDF has extensively degraded Iran’s air defence system, and left over air power through effective SEAD (Suppression of Enemy AD) operations. It targeted missile sites, launchers and manufacturing facilities. Through clandestine teams using agents, moles within the Irani military and government, Tel Aviv has killed the top leadership of Revolutionary Guards (IRGC or Pasadaran) and other branches of Irani military, and upto a dozen top nuclear scientists and clergy. However, despite this attrition, Ayatollahs remain in power with no immediate threat to their rule and authority for now.

Irani people were subjected to intense psy-ops, and propaganda involving pro-Shah expat Irani communities, to rise up against the regime and vacate Tehran during hostilities. However, despite deep fissures, unrest and suppression and faltering economy, Iran seemed to hold its ground during this brief but intense combat.

The Middle East (ME) balance of power is altered decidedly away from Iran and tilted towards Israel. This will have implications. For now, Israel seems to be the dominant military power in the ME and is on the roll with the US backing.

China and Russia provided diplomatic, political and ‘some’ military support to Tehran. Türkiye, Qatar, UAE, Egypt and Saudi Arabia played helpful role in the ceasefire and containment of hostilities. COAS Field Marshal Asim, during his recent visit to the US, was reportedly able to persuade President Trump not to use excessive force against Iran, during their unprecedented Oval Office meeting.